I keep talking about my “past lives,” and in one of those lives, I was an economic analyst. That was in 1969, right after I had completed my first course in macroeconomics.
When the US government “prints” $2 trillion of funny money, and then just gives it away to ease the pain and fear they caused with the COVIDCrisis, you’re going to have supply shortages and inflation. Any freshman Macro 101 student knows that.
But, when the US government prints $6 trillion of funny money, and gives in all away, that government is going to cause worldwide supply shortages and hyperinflation. Again, any young adult with half a brain might know that, or they might be able to be taught that ... assuming you can pry them away from TicToc and Instagram for twenty minutes.
Hello Dr. Malone & Jill. You two might not have degrees in the dismal science, economics, but this article sure reads that way. My undergraduate degree is in economics & public policy analysis. So, my reading this article kind of makes me feel this was written by Peter Navarro, Ph.D., economics (Harvard University), & Professor Emeritus, economics and public policy analysis, University of California, Irvine.
I'm not suggesting at all Dr. Navarro had anything to do with your's & Jill's economic analysis, here written. I'm just complimenting both you & Jill on what I feel is a well thought out analysis any economist would be happy to claim his own. I'd love to see Dr. Navarro chime in on your article. I'm willing to bet he'd agree with me.
I'm a huge fan of Maria Bartiroma's morning programs on the Fox Business Channel, Mornings with Maria. Maria, who I consider to be a genius, offers thoughtful debates on the US economy, with some of the best minds in the business.
Maria is of the mind we're headed for a recession later this year. Her panelists who agree with her often site several factors: rising interest rates created by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation, the inverted yield curve where short term bond interest rates are more attractive to investors than long-term ( &, therefore, lack of funding into the futures bond market due to poor ROI compared to short-term bonds results in less investments in the future). Another point ofter made is the pending refinancing of close to $2 trillion in commercial real estate mortgages due in 2023 (by commercial real estate investors overlevaged & very possibly unable to refinance their commercial properties, causing defaults in the crucial part of the US economy).
Dr. Malone, you & Jill have touched upon some of the signs & symptoms of our global US economy that are indeed troubling. And, the advise you give. I believe is solid.
But, one huge problem USA Residents have is living on the very edge, or beyond the edge, of what they can afford financially. And, about 60% of USA Residents have $1000 or less in their bank accounts to rely on. These same Folks are usually maxed out on their credit card debts & paying ridiculously high usury interest rates on their card balances. Loss of a job, even a part-time job, could cause a collapse of their abilities to make the minimum payments on their accumulated debts.
And, the list of indicators goes on & on. Time will tell if Bidenomics succeeds or fails.
But, as you & Jill have suggested, plan for the worst, and hope for best.
Aug 10, 2023·edited Aug 10, 2023Liked by Robert W Malone MD, MS
The other big leading indicator in shipping is domestic rail volumes, which are down. Here is a nice summary: https://railfax.transmatch.com/ (choose "total" or "all" in the dropdown on the right for big picture)
And has anyone looked at gas lately? I'm not speaking of the gas-lighting gasbags in Washington DC and the media who tell us everything is A-OK. I'm speaking of the stuff that moves America's economy: gasoline. Gas went up A LOT just overnight (now at $4.23/gallon in small-town Idaho).
Living in one of Montana's famous river corridors which accommodates highways & a major rail line we are used to the horn blowing that takes place as a train runs thru the valley connecting the Port of Seattle with inland destinations. We've noted a significant reduction in train traffic which I've associated with the very same trend you've outlined. There is a definite slow down in the flow of goods.
Another leading economic indicator is the sale of cardboard boxes. Everything ships in cardboard boxes. And the sale of boxes has been down for at least the three months.
You all must know this site is being monitored so I will say what I have to say then pray God blesses and protects it. It's going to sound completely crazy.
I agree being out of debt is a good goal though I know it's hard especially for young families. I wish I had solutions for them.
Being INTJ I am severely afflicted with acute intuition so there have been numerous times in my 76 years that gave me upfront insight and therefore helped me to always have an efficient PLAN B in place.
Historically speaking those who made a difference in turning a bad tide operated in multiple and different ways. Some had to speak out while others worked under the radar. Think the difference between Dietrich Bonhoeffer and Corrie Ten-Boom. The individual challenge is being able to listen to the still small voice and determine your part then do that. No judging those who are doing things differently.
In 1999 I knew ITs who were seriously worried so I chose to be a serious prepper but less about prepping for Dooms Day and more about being able to stay away from the fray. Remember the fights over toilet paper during the covid plandemic? Yeah I avoided that too by seeing the signs in early 2020.
But when the all clear was sounded in 2000, besides having supplies that got us through a couple years of scrimping during a business start up in 2001, I had gained three important skillsets - how to plan for disaster, how to know when to keep my mouth shut about what I am doing and how to pray without ceasing.
Fast forward to 2020, of the friends and family in our tribe who berated the rest of us for refusing the clot shot are now being amazingly silent on the topic. I see that as a good sign though. At least we are no longer at odds with each other. Of those who willingly took the shot and are now dealing with health issues, like aggressive cancer, I choose not to point out their misguided faith and instead pray their eyes are further opened to the tough truth.
Unfortunately the day does come when there are those who refuse to see and are then blinded lest they see but I just keep praying anyway because there is no downside to praying and until the ca-ca hits the rotating blades hope springs eternal.
Listen, obey, trust. We war with dark principalities but God wrote the script so He knows the ending. They can kill my body but there is nothing they can do to my soul. In the meantime I am always working on PLAN B which, for now, is gathering essential things that can be bartered.
Jeff Bezos is on record telling people, starting about 6 months ago or so, not to buy any new vehicles or homes, to save more and spend less. Great advice for anyone. Thank you and Jill for your analysis. It's going to get worse before it gets better: the only question is the timing.
Sorry about the trolls Doc!!! Some people have to make everyone as unhappy as they are. Love you work and this article!!! I say pray and prep!!! My prayers to you and Jill!!
The de-banking wave in Britain serves as a warning sign for us, as Mike Lindell has experienced. Coutts Bank in Britain didn't like Nigel Farage's politics and they cut him off. But he fought back and now the CEO of the parent company and the Coutts boss are both gone. It just takes courage and grit, like the Malones show us every day, and, per John Paul Jones, [we] have not yet begun to fight!
Good observations but needs to be tempered with measures of financial stress, Real Personal Income(RPI) and employment trends. Global trade has shifted towards on-shoring to protect supply chains. With China no longer a trusted partner much is repositioning which adds to local employment and personal income with the same true for the US. US employment continues to trend higher as does inflation adjusted personal income i.e., Real Personal Income. The mortgage, commercial debt and credit card delinquency rates remain historically well below threat levels. All is good for a couple of years yet despite the many forecasts by experts.
We need to see RPI decline, retail sales to decline, employment growth to turn flat and delinquency rates to rise to levels reminiscent of the inception of prior recessions before the next downturn.
So much forecast in the media and so little on point. Investors must always to do their own work but the indicators mentioned are very fundamental and reliable. This data and much more is freely available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
There is great consolidation in the stock market with fewer and fewer corporations contributing to the upside! When the money men feel it has peaked and they pull the plug, it will be a rapid down hill event! Amazon, Apple and Microsoft will be the last ones standing!
I keep talking about my “past lives,” and in one of those lives, I was an economic analyst. That was in 1969, right after I had completed my first course in macroeconomics.
When the US government “prints” $2 trillion of funny money, and then just gives it away to ease the pain and fear they caused with the COVIDCrisis, you’re going to have supply shortages and inflation. Any freshman Macro 101 student knows that.
But, when the US government prints $6 trillion of funny money, and gives in all away, that government is going to cause worldwide supply shortages and hyperinflation. Again, any young adult with half a brain might know that, or they might be able to be taught that ... assuming you can pry them away from TicToc and Instagram for twenty minutes.
Hello Dr. Malone & Jill. You two might not have degrees in the dismal science, economics, but this article sure reads that way. My undergraduate degree is in economics & public policy analysis. So, my reading this article kind of makes me feel this was written by Peter Navarro, Ph.D., economics (Harvard University), & Professor Emeritus, economics and public policy analysis, University of California, Irvine.
I'm not suggesting at all Dr. Navarro had anything to do with your's & Jill's economic analysis, here written. I'm just complimenting both you & Jill on what I feel is a well thought out analysis any economist would be happy to claim his own. I'd love to see Dr. Navarro chime in on your article. I'm willing to bet he'd agree with me.
I'm a huge fan of Maria Bartiroma's morning programs on the Fox Business Channel, Mornings with Maria. Maria, who I consider to be a genius, offers thoughtful debates on the US economy, with some of the best minds in the business.
Maria is of the mind we're headed for a recession later this year. Her panelists who agree with her often site several factors: rising interest rates created by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation, the inverted yield curve where short term bond interest rates are more attractive to investors than long-term ( &, therefore, lack of funding into the futures bond market due to poor ROI compared to short-term bonds results in less investments in the future). Another point ofter made is the pending refinancing of close to $2 trillion in commercial real estate mortgages due in 2023 (by commercial real estate investors overlevaged & very possibly unable to refinance their commercial properties, causing defaults in the crucial part of the US economy).
Dr. Malone, you & Jill have touched upon some of the signs & symptoms of our global US economy that are indeed troubling. And, the advise you give. I believe is solid.
But, one huge problem USA Residents have is living on the very edge, or beyond the edge, of what they can afford financially. And, about 60% of USA Residents have $1000 or less in their bank accounts to rely on. These same Folks are usually maxed out on their credit card debts & paying ridiculously high usury interest rates on their card balances. Loss of a job, even a part-time job, could cause a collapse of their abilities to make the minimum payments on their accumulated debts.
And, the list of indicators goes on & on. Time will tell if Bidenomics succeeds or fails.
But, as you & Jill have suggested, plan for the worst, and hope for best.
The other big leading indicator in shipping is domestic rail volumes, which are down. Here is a nice summary: https://railfax.transmatch.com/ (choose "total" or "all" in the dropdown on the right for big picture)
Per multiple life insurance companies, the death rate has increased 40%.. .dead people don’t purchase stuff.
And has anyone looked at gas lately? I'm not speaking of the gas-lighting gasbags in Washington DC and the media who tell us everything is A-OK. I'm speaking of the stuff that moves America's economy: gasoline. Gas went up A LOT just overnight (now at $4.23/gallon in small-town Idaho).
Living in one of Montana's famous river corridors which accommodates highways & a major rail line we are used to the horn blowing that takes place as a train runs thru the valley connecting the Port of Seattle with inland destinations. We've noted a significant reduction in train traffic which I've associated with the very same trend you've outlined. There is a definite slow down in the flow of goods.
Another leading economic indicator is the sale of cardboard boxes. Everything ships in cardboard boxes. And the sale of boxes has been down for at least the three months.
You all must know this site is being monitored so I will say what I have to say then pray God blesses and protects it. It's going to sound completely crazy.
I agree being out of debt is a good goal though I know it's hard especially for young families. I wish I had solutions for them.
Being INTJ I am severely afflicted with acute intuition so there have been numerous times in my 76 years that gave me upfront insight and therefore helped me to always have an efficient PLAN B in place.
Historically speaking those who made a difference in turning a bad tide operated in multiple and different ways. Some had to speak out while others worked under the radar. Think the difference between Dietrich Bonhoeffer and Corrie Ten-Boom. The individual challenge is being able to listen to the still small voice and determine your part then do that. No judging those who are doing things differently.
In 1999 I knew ITs who were seriously worried so I chose to be a serious prepper but less about prepping for Dooms Day and more about being able to stay away from the fray. Remember the fights over toilet paper during the covid plandemic? Yeah I avoided that too by seeing the signs in early 2020.
But when the all clear was sounded in 2000, besides having supplies that got us through a couple years of scrimping during a business start up in 2001, I had gained three important skillsets - how to plan for disaster, how to know when to keep my mouth shut about what I am doing and how to pray without ceasing.
Fast forward to 2020, of the friends and family in our tribe who berated the rest of us for refusing the clot shot are now being amazingly silent on the topic. I see that as a good sign though. At least we are no longer at odds with each other. Of those who willingly took the shot and are now dealing with health issues, like aggressive cancer, I choose not to point out their misguided faith and instead pray their eyes are further opened to the tough truth.
Unfortunately the day does come when there are those who refuse to see and are then blinded lest they see but I just keep praying anyway because there is no downside to praying and until the ca-ca hits the rotating blades hope springs eternal.
Listen, obey, trust. We war with dark principalities but God wrote the script so He knows the ending. They can kill my body but there is nothing they can do to my soul. In the meantime I am always working on PLAN B which, for now, is gathering essential things that can be bartered.
Jeff Bezos is on record telling people, starting about 6 months ago or so, not to buy any new vehicles or homes, to save more and spend less. Great advice for anyone. Thank you and Jill for your analysis. It's going to get worse before it gets better: the only question is the timing.
Danny Huckabee
Great advice to avoid debt!
Also check out Global Walkout, which offers practical steps you can take, including KEEP CASH ALIVE! https://globalwalkout.com/
Sorry about the trolls Doc!!! Some people have to make everyone as unhappy as they are. Love you work and this article!!! I say pray and prep!!! My prayers to you and Jill!!
The de-banking wave in Britain serves as a warning sign for us, as Mike Lindell has experienced. Coutts Bank in Britain didn't like Nigel Farage's politics and they cut him off. But he fought back and now the CEO of the parent company and the Coutts boss are both gone. It just takes courage and grit, like the Malones show us every day, and, per John Paul Jones, [we] have not yet begun to fight!
School of Hard Knocks, Fellowship-Trained. Searching for third Pup. I like Dogs better than most people. Ed
Good observations but needs to be tempered with measures of financial stress, Real Personal Income(RPI) and employment trends. Global trade has shifted towards on-shoring to protect supply chains. With China no longer a trusted partner much is repositioning which adds to local employment and personal income with the same true for the US. US employment continues to trend higher as does inflation adjusted personal income i.e., Real Personal Income. The mortgage, commercial debt and credit card delinquency rates remain historically well below threat levels. All is good for a couple of years yet despite the many forecasts by experts.
We need to see RPI decline, retail sales to decline, employment growth to turn flat and delinquency rates to rise to levels reminiscent of the inception of prior recessions before the next downturn.
So much forecast in the media and so little on point. Investors must always to do their own work but the indicators mentioned are very fundamental and reliable. This data and much more is freely available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
Great advice and sensible solutions...that no one ever follows.
There is great consolidation in the stock market with fewer and fewer corporations contributing to the upside! When the money men feel it has peaked and they pull the plug, it will be a rapid down hill event! Amazon, Apple and Microsoft will be the last ones standing!